Econified

The United States conducted targeted strikes against Venezuela and captured Venezuela’s president, Nicolás Maduro, in the early morning of January 3rd, 2026. Maduro has since been transported to New York to face prosecution for several drug and weapons charges.

The United States has been conducting strikes on suspected drug vessels in the region since early September 2025. These strikes have largely been labeled by U.S. officials as counter-terrorism operations aimed at stopping the import of drugs into the U.S.

These developments mark a notable shift in U.S. engagement with Venezuela. The operation has prompted questions about the reasoning behind the strike, the scope of potential future U.S. involvement in, possible responses from Venezuela’s current leadership and their allies, and the overall economic implications behind this attack.

Reasoning for Attack

1. Political and Moral Justification:

In a press conference following the attack, President Trump says that this operation was to bring Maduro “to justice”. President Maduro and Venezuela have been tied to the importation of drugs into the United States. President Trump has been very vocal that he wants to stop drugs from entering the US, especially from Latin American countries. This has been cited as the primary justification for the ongoing strikes against Venezuelan drug vessels, and many of Maduro’s official criminal citations refer back to his alleged involvement with drug distribution and cartels. The current regime in Venezuela is far more tolerant of these cartels than President Trump would like, so enacting a new regime is a way to potentially lessen the flow of illegal drugs from the region.

Nicolás Maduro is also very politically unpopular, not just in the United States or with President Trump. The United Nations publicly accused Maduro of “crimes against humanity” earlier this year. The UN made these claims after he forcefully took another term of presidency despite election results. Former President Joe Biden offered $25 million bounty for Maduro’s arrest in early 2025, and President Trump raised this bounty amount to $50 million in August of this year. Both Republicans, Democrats, and foreign nations have broadly recognized that Nicolás Maduro was a problem, and the United States has captured him to answer for his actions.

2. Legal Basis and International Law:

The formal citation against Maduro can be found here on the DoJ website. He is being brought in for charges for Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy, Cocaine Importation Conspiracy, Possession of Machineguns and Destructive Devices, and Conspiracy to Possess Machineguns and Destructive Devices. These criminal charges could put Maduro in prison for the remainder of his life.

The United Nations recognizes that acting leaders of a country cannot be held criminally responsible for their actions by a foreign country. However, this protection likely does not apply for two reasons: U.S. officials argue that the United States does not have to comply with United Nations requirements, and the United States does not recognize Maduro as the legitimate leader of Venezuela. The U.S. and UN have both stated that Maduro seized control of Venezuela and ignored democratic election results which makes him an illegitimate leader.

3. Strategic Motivations:

Besides the ethical concerns of removing a corrupt regime, the United States action also had a key economic reasoning for this aggression, oil. Venezuela has an immense reserve of oil, estimated at 303 billion barrels of crude oil (worth approximately $17.3 Trillion). This amount of oil is a massive strategic incentive for the United States to want a regime change to leaders who are more politically aligned with U.S. interests. Venezuela’s biggest economic and political partners are Russia and China, two nations that are considered adversarial to U.S. interests.

Strategically controlling Venezuela’s oil reserves and denying potential benefits to U.S. adversaries likely factored into the administration’s decision-making. While ethical concerns have been cited to justify the strikes and the removal of Nicolás Maduro, future U.S. involvement may also be shaped by the economic and strategic significance of Venezuela’s resources.

Future Involvement by United States

Capturing a foreign leader leaves a country with instability, and this is something that has likely been discussed by the Trump administration prior to this calculated mission. CNN reports that President Trump said, “We’re going to run the country until such time as we can do a safe, proper and judicious transition”. This is vague, and it does not say specifically what the plan is for Venezuela now that their president is gone.

As was mentioned above, a key reason for this attack was to get a regime change in Venezuela. If a regime change is an actionable objective, the United States is going to have to increase involvement in the region to ensure a new regime can take hold. Removing Maduro alone is unlikely to be sufficient to achieve the broader changes the operation is intended to initiate.

Whatever the plan for the region is, it has not been widely shared. United States’ South Command (SOUTHCOM) is the combatant command in charge of the region. The command’s website states that the whole command, responsible for all of South and Central America, currently has 1,200 personnel. This many personnel cannot hold Venezuela. The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) estimates that Venezuela has about 220,000 personnel in their military force while Maduro claims he can deploy millions. Continued operations in the region will likely have to be supplemented with U.S. forces from elsewhere.

A new regime taking control of Venezuela will certainly take time. Maduro has been president of the country for more than 12 years. Replacing a government leader, especially an authoritarian leader like Maduro, is going to take some time to ensure a successful transition. Delcy Rodríguez, Venezuela’s executive vice president, is the next in line to lead the country now that Maduro is gone. The chances of Maduro being returned to Venezuela are quite low, and this essentially makes Rodríguez the new president. In a clip on Saturday, she demanded that President Trump release Maduro. This does not make it seem like she will be amenable to the United States taking over her country and putting a new regime in power.

This means that the controlling power in Venezuela still has control, just without their leader. No real change has happened yet, so future U.S. involvement is highly likely. Due to the sensitive nature of continued operations, the general public will not know what the next steps for U.S. involvement will be until they happen. While no word on an official military occupation has been announced, Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, said President Trump does not want to rule out US occupation of Venezuela or putting troops in the country. An occupation, at least to some degree, might offer more stability than simply exerting political pressure on the nation to comply.

Venezuelan Retaliation

Venezuela’s resources are economically very powerful, and their allies such as China and Russia are not going to be happy to lose this partner. China has been Venezuela’s largest customer, and it is unlikely that the United States would offer China similarly favorable terms if it were to assume control over the supply.

Venezuela has strong allies and enough resources to pressure their allies to support them over the United States. Additionally, Defense Minister, Vladimir Padrino López, said on Sunday that Venezuela will seek to defend their country. The acting government in Venezuela does not seem to want a regime change, and they still have control of the country. With powerful allies, this conflict can potentially escalate. Future Venezuelan retaliation will largely depend on how the United States further engages with the country.

Economic Impacts

The biggest economic impacts from this move will be centered around oil. The sheer amount of oil available in Venezuela is staggering, and the United States has the economic power to drastically increase oil outputs from Venezuela. A large influx of oil into the global market could lead to oversupply and decreasing prices. The economic impacts of this move will center mainly around if the United States actually takes control of the country’s resources.

The current Venezuelan regime does not seem likely to give the United States access to their resources willingly. Future escalation in the country could incite military action not only from Venezuela but also potentially China and Russia. Given the risk, the United States may not actually gain control of Venezuela’s oil or force a regime change.

If the United States does gain control of Venezuela’s oil and pours investment into Venezuela’s oil industry, this will lead to lower global oil prices. Oil exporting countries will be negatively impacted by the decreases in oil prices due. Venezuela is a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) while the United States is not a member. With these large oil reserves being under U.S. control, other OPEC nations stand to lose a lot. While many of these nations are friendly with the U.S. (some are not), this news has potential to be destabilizing in their countries. The Middle East, where a lot of OPEC nations are located, is already unstable with ideological differences causing tensions in the area. Further pressure from dropping oil prices could ignite this region, and the lowering of oil prices will not reflect favorably on the United States.

Currently, the oil industry in Venezuela is controlled by the government. The United States forcing a regime change would destabilize this industry. This puts U.S. domestic oil companies in a position to take over the industry in Venezuela. The U.S. government is not in a position to harvest and refine oil from Venezuela, so the United States will have to rely on U.S. corporations to transform their oil industry.

Oil refiners in the United States will see growth due to an increasing amount of crude oil to be refined. Oil production companies in the United States have more of an unclear economic condition if the United States seizes Venezuela’s oil. Decreasing prices will lower profit for domestic oil companies, but the abundance of foreign oil available to harvest will raise outputs. For U.S. oil extractors, the benefits of more production will likely outweigh the cost of decreasing profitability. Again, these outcomes will only happen if the United States is able to control Venezuela’s oil or get access to their oil industry through some sort of agreement.

The economic impact on Venezuela is pretty bleak. Regime changes are often costly for a country, as political instability and competition over resources can worsen conditions for residents. Maduro had many political opponents that can seize this opportunity to take power in the country, especially if the US does not facilitate a regime transition.

The United States revitalizing the oil industry in Venezuela will have some positive impacts for the country. Foreign investment is generally a good thing for economies because it means money from one country flows into your country. This increases output, jobs, and overall leads to a higher quality of life.

However, seizure of Venezuela’s oil reserves is significantly more detrimental to the quality of life for Venezuelans. The country relies on these oil reserves to fund almost every aspect of their economy. If the United States and foreign companies take control of their most lucrative asset, that will certainly hurt Venezuela. The increased dollars spent on developing infrastructure and wages will not completely offset the loss of the oil, and it could lead to Venezuela being heavily dependent on the United States even after a new regime is enacted.

Takeaways

It is too early to determine the full consequences of U.S. action in the region. While there could be economic benefits if the United States were to gain access to Venezuelan oil, no concrete steps have been taken to control or restructure the industry. The situation remains complex, and Venezuela’s future will largely depend on how events unfold in the coming weeks. Although the operation targeted a single individual, it would be unrealistic to assume U.S. involvement will be limited to this instance.

Immediate market impacts remain unclear, as oil futures trade only during normal market hours. In the near term, uncertainty surrounding the region may place upward pressure on oil prices, even as longer-term scenarios involving increased supply could exert downward pressure.

Further military action by either the United States or Venezuela remains possible as tensions between the current Venezuelan leadership and the U.S. remain elevated. This is a rapidly evolving situation, and additional developments will be addressed in a future post.