Econified

November 2025 had a lot of weekly fluctuations in the stock market. These fluctuations mostly canceled out, so the month ended with stock prices close to where they started. Here are some notes from key indexes of the U.S. stock market from the beginning of November to the end:

• S&P 500 Index – decreased by 0.04%
• Nasdaq Composite – decreased by 1.97%
• Dow Jones Industrial Average Index – increased by 0.80%
• Russell 2000 Index – increased by 1.18%

As noted, this is a relatively small amount of change for the entire month of November. While the Russell 2000 and the Dow Jones showed moderate growth, the Nasdaq and the S&P decreased slightly. November is a very common month for companies to report their quarterly earnings. A lot of companies beat expectations, signaling the U.S. economy is still growing and healthy. However, the September jobs report and higher than normal inflation still raise concerns for investors.

Moreover, the market is still unsure if the Federal Reserve is going to lower interest rates in December. Going into November, the market was fairly confident that the rates would be lowered. However, some remarks for board members have led to more doubt. The Federal Reserve lowers rates to combat unemployment. This brings about stronger growth because of favorable lending. Although, rapid growth and more lending leads to higher inflation. This is why the market was unsure of a interest rate cut in mid-month. Inflation is currently above 3% which is historically high. However, due to recent unemployment numbers being released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, it is more likely that there will be a rate cut. Econified dove further into this report and its potential impacts; you can read more about it here. Higher unemployment numbers do signal concerns for investors. This is especially true in industries more affected by market slowdowns. However, the raised chances of lowering interest rates combated this negative effect pretty well.

Industry Changes

Pharmaceuticals: The Pharmaceuticals industry, tracked using Dow Jones’ U.S. Pharmaceuticals Index (DJUSPR), increased by 15.02% this month. This growth has been shown in the last few weeks market recaps. This industry is recession resistant and showing strong growth due to healthy margins and new drugs. As inflation and unemployment both seem to be rising slowly, it makes sense that a safer industry is growing as well.

Financial Services: The Financial Services industry, tracked using Dow Jones’ U.S. Financial Services Index (DJUSFV), increased by 1.83% this month. This growth is moderate, but it is still positive for the industry. The financial services industry was hit hard when it was expected that interest rates would not decrease in December. However, since the unemployment numbers strengthen the case for decreasing rates, the industry recovered quickly. Many large companies in this industry (ex. JP Morgan, Bank of America, Citigroup) beat expectations on their earnings. This shows greater than expected profitability in the industry which contributed to the growth.

Technology: The Technology industry, tracked using Dow Jones’ US Technology Index (DJUSTC), decreased by 2.71%. The technology industry is facing increasing scrutiny as investors begin to fear bubbles appearing with AI focused companies. While some companies do seem inflated (see article on Palantir here), AI companies are still reporting strong growth with healthy margins. Increased competition or decreased growth would severely hurt this industry. Currently, this decrease is likely from decreased investor confidence in continued growth at the current rates.

Consumer Goods: The Consumer Goods industry, tracked using Dow Jones’ US Consumer Goods Index (DJUSNC), decreased by 0.21%. This is a moderate decrease which shows the industry is responding similarly to market conditions as major indexes. Increased unemployment is potentially concerning because discretionary spending is vital for many consumer goods businesses. Walmart, the largest retailer in this space, saw stock growth around 9% in November. This is because of the Walmart’s November 20th earnings call. The earnings call only slightly beat estimates, but the company is projecting major growth in profitability and revenues in 2026. Overall, the rest of the industry did not perform as well, and the industry stayed relatively stagnant in November.

Oil & Gas: The Oil & Gas industry, tracked using Dow Jones US Oil & Gas Index (DJUSEN), increased by 2.13%. Interestingly, Oil prices fell by about 2.5% in November while stock prices still grew. U.S. oil production has continued to ramp up and strong growth in production is allowing growth despite declining oil prices. Ordinarily, stocks in this industry tend to follow the price of oil closely. Margins are still very healthy for the industry, and the U.S. is growing less reliant on foreign oil production.

Parting Thoughts

November was an interesting month for the stock market. The market started strong with many companies reporting strong Q3 numbers, and the general consensus was there would be a rate cut in December. As the month continued, the market declined as new reports emerged and investor confidence declined. The end of the month brought significant stock growth. This brought back the market to relatively similar levels as the month began.

Looking at December, a key decision will be if there is an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve on the 10th. An interest rate cut will likely boost the entire stock market, albeit moderately since this is what is currently expected. If the Federal Reserve decides to forgo an interest rate cut or raise the rate to combat inflation, the stock market will likely have a profound negative impact. Economic reports such as November’s jobs report and inflation report will be released in December. Worsening economic conditions will not be positive for the stock market. However, strong economic data would help reassure investors. Only time will tell what December will do for the market.